HERMES RESEARCH — Crypto Digest

🧠 SYNTHESIS — today's LLM digest (opportunities · avoid · actions)

# 🔬 CRYPTO RESEARCH DIGEST — 2026-10-03 Synthesis (narrative only; raw tables on dashboard). ## READ ON THE MARKET RIGHT NOW This is a **reversion/fade regime, not a breakout regime**. Only 3 of 67 paper processes show CONFIDENT positive net-EV (`oggy_boost +3.9%`, `volume_path +1.9%`, `wallet_buysize +1.6%`); the default signal stack (`trending`, `smartmoney`, `fomo`, `cluster`, `sniper`) all bleed -11% to -28% net-EV. Entry quality is the leak, not exits — forensics show armed trades +23.7% net-EV vs never-armed -46.3%; the fix is blocking bad ADMISSION, not touching exit rules. Recency matured-cohorts confirm improvement: recent 31.3% WR (n=8,453) vs ~25% prior, +6.3pp. ## WHAT GENERATES ALPHA - **Trade class = ACCUM.** Only class with gross-positive EV (+0.5%) and by far the best net (-1.8%), highest payoff ratio (1.70), only positive avg_ret (+0.53%). Everything else is -5.8% (SCALP) down to -19.7% (POSITION). - **Processes (CONFIDENT only):** `oggy_boost` (+3.9% EV, WR 35.5%, n=200), `volume_path` (+1.9%, n=293), `wallet_buysize` (+1.6%, WR 29%, n=386). That's the live-alpha shortlist. - **Paper candidates to watch** (positive but LOW grade): accum-sig family — `gmgn_cluster` +6.8% (n=52), `fresh_swarm` +6.5% (n=50), `stealth` +2.5% (n=42); plus `wallet_copy` +29.1% (n=13, UNRELIABLE). None promote yet — keep shadow-collecting. - **KOL calls mostly bleed:** `oggy_kol` -15.4%, `michacalls` -7.6%. Only A/S-tier callers are least-negative (-6.4% / -8.6%); no_social_context is worse than any caller tier. ## CHAIN RISK/REWARD | Chain | N | WR% | netEV% | paper $/trade | read | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | base | 2,234 | 40.4 | **-6.0** | -4.59 | best signal WR + least-negative EV | | bsc | 8,437 | 38.4 | -6.7 | -9.90 | volume floods LOW-quality admits | | sol | 9,971 | 29.3 | -7.1 | -0.99 | high SL (63%) = chop | | robinhood | 10,281 | 34.3 | -8.5 | **+1.18** | worst signal EV, best realized $ — gate filters well | | eth | 1,379 | 35.7 | -8.4 | -0.26 | tiny n + outliers, ignore | Rotation call: **robinhood for realized $ (only positive paper), BSC for recent 24h** (-0.5% netEV, best this window). Be selective on base/BSC volume admits — their paper drag is the worst because low-quality signals leak through, not because winners aren't there. ## TA CONDITIONS CORRELATING WITH WINS (avg_ret %) 1. **CCI oversold → +2.77% (n=443)** — best marker in the stack. Breakout +0.65, neutral +0.94. 2. **Enter above VWAP → +1.09%** vs below +0.27%. 3. **Volume expansion helps modestly:** low +0.46 → high +1.13%. 4. **EMAs are inverted right now:** ema21_above_50 False +2.29 vs True +1.07; ema9_above_21 False +1.45 vs True +0.93. "EMA aligned bullish" is NOT confirming in a fade regime. ## AVOID (CONFIDENT, all negative netEV, no exceptions) sniper -28.4%, trench -26.2%, momentum_scalp -24.2%, cluster -18.5%, control -19.8%, scout -18.3%, apex B/C/D -18 to -20%, known_conv -9.0%, fomo -11.0%. And buy-profile: **zero large buys = -9.6% avg (WR 7.7%) — do not enter token with no $1k+ buys; diffuse small buys (<0.5% MC) win (+2.3%, WR 45%) vs concentrated >2% (-1.0%).** ## SYSTEM HEALTH - ✅ TA coverage **83.1%** (goal 100%) — gap 16.9pp, dragged by POSITION **0.0%**, SWING **50.9%**, null-class 16.3% (TA wanted most, measured least). - ✅ Signals: **32,302 tracked, 32,302 resolved** (100% resolution), 160,526 window rows, 26,829 TA records. - ✅ Karpathy daily review intact — last **2026-10-02T10:48Z**, "no param changes" streak holds, no promotions. - 🟠 Decision fabric WARN / LOW_COVERAGE; apex_weights.json **66d stale** (apply cron refuses daily). - 🔴 No promotion authority this cycle — hold live line, keep paper shadow accumulating. ## RECOMMENDED ACTIONS - 🔴 HIGH Play ACCUM + oggy_boost/volume_path/wallet_buysize; keep sniper/trench/momentum_scalp paper-only until a CONFIDENT positive edge appears. - 🔴 HIGH Rotate paper weight to robinhood (only +USD) + recent BSC; raise admission floor on base/BSC volume admits, don't touch exit rules (leak is entry). - 🟠 MED Prefer CCI-oversold entries above VWAP; treat EMA alignment as neutral, not bullish. - 🟠 MED Fix TA capture on POSITION (0%) and SWING (51%) — highest-value classes, lowest coverage. - 🟡 QUICK-WIN Resolve the apex --apply gate (66d silent refusal) or it stays a stuck sentinel.

⚙ STRATEGY OPERATIONS — paper trades opened by method · rules + cadence

method	live gate / rule	1h	4h	day	week	month	all
source_strategy	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	1	10	33	193	518	518
known_conv	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	27	307	542	545
wallet_intel	configured; expand strategy_config.json	6	6	22	131	318	318
whalemover_rh	min_buy_usd=300 · enabled=True	0	1	13	440	753	754
whalemover	window_minutes=45 · min_buy_usd=300	1	1	10	133	323	327
sniffer	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	2	7	15	18	18
volume_path	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	6	1196	1888	1891
sa_accum	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	4	60	313	315
whale_driver	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	4	31	31	31
fresh_large_buy	enabled=True	0	0	4	4	4	4
alpha_brief	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	3	14	92	93
leading_conv	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	3	31	43	43
caller_kol	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	1	3	13	13	13
scout	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	1	11	145	145
control	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	1	4	19	19
side_walker	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	71	172	173
accum_engine	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	12	108	110
accum_sig_gmgn_cluster	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	3	22	23
accum_sig_fresh_swarm	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	1	16	17
accum_sig_stealth	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	2	15	16
oggy_kol	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	4	14	14
accum_sig_flow_div	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	1	13	13
trending	PAPER ENTRY: fresh single tx ≥$500 AND MC $50,000–$2,000,000; raw discovery remains active · per-chain champion/challenger scanner gates	0	0	0	8	12	12
wallet_buysize	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	0	8	12
oggy_boost	configured; expand strategy_config.json	0	0	0	0	11	11
xcluster	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	1	5	5
smartmoney	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	2	4	4
accum_sig_bundled	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	0	3	3
floor_revival	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	3	3	3
dormant_wake	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	0	2	2
inversion_alpha	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	2	2	2
cluster	min_wallets=3 · max_rug_ratio=0.4	0	0	0	1	1	1
fomo	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	1	1	1
fomo_curated	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	1	1	1
sajad_second_leg	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	0	1	1
volume_spike	rules: detector code / feed_bible.json	0	0	0	0	0	1

🏆 ALPHA LEADERBOARD — strategy × source (N≥100, by avg ret · EV=net expectancy)

strategy	n	win%	tp1%	sl%	avg ret	EV	top20%
whalemover_tracker_rh:unknown	1,496	29.2	4.0	6.1	-0.29%	-2.8%	9.8%
whalemover:unknown	149	24.8	10.1	22.1	-6.26%	-10.0%	13.8%
wallet_intel:unknown	705	23.7	15.9	60.7	-6.74%	-8.5%	36.0%
oggy_v3:unknown	257	16.0	18.3	72.0	-8.50%	-12.5%	33.6%
trending_multi:unknown	12,596	34.5	17.9	44.2	-8.68%	-10.6%	17.6%
side_frontrun:unknown	187	20.3	15.0	55.1	-9.51%	-12.7%	11.1%
source_strategy:unknown	138	12.3	7.2	47.1	-12.13%	-15.5%	8.1%
known_convergence:unknown	899	23.2	5.0	28.4	-13.31%	-17.1%	18.4%
whalemover_rh:unknown	2,684	24.2	4.6	40.0	-31.44%	-34.3%	11.0%

⛓ CHAIN RISK/REWARD

chain	n	win%	sl%	avg ret	EV	top20%
sol	5,277	24.4	71.0	-7.38%	-9.7%	25.7%
eth	1,104	35.1	37.5	-9.17%	-13.9%	27.5%
bsc	3,521	36.2	32.0	-11.03%	-13.0%	16.3%
robinhood	7,950	31.6	29.4	-13.90%	-16.1%	11.8%
base	1,517	35.1	21.2	-14.75%	-16.7%	8.6%

💰 BUY-PROFILE SWEET SPOTS — best band per metric

metric	best band	n	win%	avg ret	top20%
buys_ge_2_5k	3+	4,451	40.6	-0.97%	16.2%
top3_pct_mc	>5%	4,079	40.5	-1.02%	14.8%
max_buy_pct_mc	>2%	4,176	40.5	-1.05%	14.9%
buys_ge_1k	6+	4,564	39.5	-1.21%	16.6%
buys_ge_500	10+	4,574	38.7	-1.34%	17.0%
multi_buy_wallets	8+	4,667	38.5	-1.37%	16.7%

📐 TA CONDITIONS × WINS — valid at-signal-time capture (pipeline rebuilt 260716; N compounds daily)

condition	n	avg ret	top20%	edge?
ema21_above_50 False	335	-0.09%	18.8%	🟡 weak
cci oversold	140	-0.14%	22.5%	🟡 weak
ema9_above_21 False	385	-0.39%	19.0%	🟡 weak
cci neutral	434	-0.79%	16.9%	—
volume_ratio med	220	-0.81%	18.7%	—
ema21_above_50 True	410	-1.08%	14.8%	—
vwap_pct below	441	-1.50%	18.1%	—
ema9_above_21 True	458	-1.52%	16.3%	❌ avoid
cci breakout	271	-1.88%	16.2%	❌ avoid
vwap_pct above	478	-1.95%	16.0%	❌ avoid
volume_ratio low	498	-1.99%	17.8%	❌ avoid
volume_ratio high	201	-2.12%	13.0%	❌ avoid

📡 ALL SOURCES

source	n	win%	tp1%	sl%	avg ret	EV	top20%
cluster	1	100.0	0.0	0.0	+13.57%	+11.5%	13.6%
accum_sig_stealth	12	41.7	33.3	41.7	+6.75%	+3.4%	90.0%
wallet_buysize_edge	47	31.9	29.8	61.7	+3.00%	-0.1%	88.3%
whalemover_tracker	35	42.9	8.6	11.4	+2.01%	-1.7%	19.5%
inversion_alpha	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.00%	-3.1%	0.0%
whalemover_tracker_rh	1,496	29.2	4.0	6.1	-0.29%	-2.8%	9.8%
trending_buy_proof_enricher	9	33.3	0.0	11.1	-3.49%	-5.1%	7.8%
whalemover	149	24.8	10.1	22.1	-6.26%	-10.0%	13.8%
wallet_intel	705	23.7	15.9	60.7	-6.74%	-8.5%	36.0%
oggy_v3	257	16.0	18.3	72.0	-8.50%	-12.5%	33.6%
trending_multi	12,596	34.5	17.9	44.2	-8.68%	-10.6%	17.6%
side_frontrun	187	20.3	15.0	55.1	-9.51%	-12.7%	11.1%
sapphy_hot	6	0.0	0.0	50.0	-10.00%	-12.3%	0.0%
source_strategy	138	12.3	7.2	47.1	-12.13%	-15.5%	8.1%
known_convergence	899	23.2	5.0	28.4	-13.31%	-17.1%	18.4%
sm_convergence	1	0.0	100.0	100.0	-15.00%	-17.5%	-15.0%
fomo	8	0.0	0.0	100.0	-15.00%	-18.2%	-15.0%
oggy_boost	8	0.0	37.5	100.0	-15.00%	-20.4%	-15.0%
control	54	11.1	5.6	37.0	-15.99%	-19.5%	11.7%
fresh_buy_permutation	11	0.0	0.0	90.9	-21.75%	-25.3%	-9.7%
whalemover_rh	2,684	24.2	4.6	40.0	-31.44%	-34.3%	11.0%
sniffer_presence	61	13.1	18.0	82.0	-32.95%	-37.0%	9.6%
accum_sig_flow_div	4	25.0	25.0	100.0	-40.00%	-43.5%	-20.0%
apex:?	10	20.0	—	—	—	-26.1%	—
apex:B	920	18.5	—	—	—	-18.5%	—
apex:C	909	18.3	—	—	—	-20.1%	—
apex:A	914	20.5	—	—	—	-14.5%	—
apex:D	340	19.1	—	—	—	-16.7%	—
universal:smartmoney	677	19.4	—	—	—	-14.2%	—
universal:trench	91	22.0	—	—	—	-26.2%	—
universal:trending	322	20.5	—	—	—	-15.2%	—
universal:accum_engine	402	28.6	—	—	—	-8.1%	—
universal:volume_spike	141	28.4	—	—	—	-8.5%	—
universal:oggy_kol	808	21.2	—	—	—	-15.6%	—
universal:floor_revival	112	22.3	—	—	—	-11.6%	—
universal:sniper	165	17.0	—	—	—	-28.4%	—
universal:dexlions_kol	2	50.0	—	—	—	-8.0%	—
universal:cipher	218	25.7	—	—	—	-11.6%	—
universal:momentum_scalp	1,333	15.4	—	—	—	-24.2%	—
universal:fomo_curated	683	20.1	—	—	—	-16.8%	—
universal:kien_conv	40	20.0	—	—	—	-12.5%	—
universal:wallet_intel	374	24.9	—	—	—	-4.4%	—
universal:alpha_brief	226	26.5	—	—	—	-11.1%	—
universal:fomo	1,742	21.0	—	—	—	-11.0%	—
universal:control	289	14.9	—	—	—	-19.3%	—
universal:wallet_buysize	386	29.0	—	—	—	+1.6%	—
universal:whalemover	788	25.0	—	—	—	-5.3%	—
universal:oggy_boost	202	35.1	—	—	—	+3.6%	—
universal:wallet_copy	13	46.2	—	—	—	+29.1%	—
universal:cluster	654	20.9	—	—	—	-18.5%	—
universal:wc:SWING	5	60.0	—	—	—	-2.9%	—
universal:wc:SPRAYER	13	30.8	—	—	—	-3.4%	—
universal:side_walker	2	50.0	—	—	—	+4.0%	—
universal:clu:sapphy+shadow_dowville	6	50.0	—	—	—	+51.9%	—
universal:clu:sapphy	79	22.8	—	—	—	-11.9%	—
universal:kol:gabbenscalls	3	33.3	—	—	—	-25.7%	—
universal:kol:minegems	2	0.0	—	—	—	-61.8%	—
universal:kol:bruisersgambles	6	0.0	—	—	—	-19.9%	—
universal:kol:batman_gem	3	66.7	—	—	—	-13.5%	—
universal:clu:dowville	164	31.1	—	—	—	-4.2%	—
universal:wc:shadow_dowville	12	8.3	—	—	—	-18.3%	—
universal:known_conv	923	20.3	—	—	—	-6.9%	—
universal:clu:shadow_dowville	54	35.2	—	—	—	-6.9%	—
universal:known_dist	22	9.1	—	—	—	-15.0%	—
universal:kol:millionsgems	2	100.0	—	—	—	+18.3%	—
universal:dormant_wake	19	21.1	—	—	—	-12.3%	—
universal:kol:michacalls	81	24.7	—	—	—	-7.6%	—
universal:kol:maestrosdegen	4	25.0	—	—	—	-5.8%	—
universal:clu:traderpow	4	0.0	—	—	—	-33.8%	—
universal:kol:mattfuriecalls1	1	0.0	—	—	—	-2.1%	—
universal:sa_accum	704	24.3	—	—	—	-6.3%	—
universal:clu:gitlawb+traderpow	2	0.0	—	—	—	-21.2%	—
universal:clu:monaco_messiah	5	40.0	—	—	—	-12.7%	—
universal:clu:fomo	1,308	28.0	—	—	—	-4.3%	—
universal:clu:gitlawb+shadow_dowvill	3	33.3	—	—	—	-0.4%	—
universal:kol:shitcoinneverland	1	0.0	—	—	—	-53.2%	—
universal:clu:profitleader+sapphy	1	100.0	—	—	—	+3.0%	—
universal:kol:powsgemcalls	1	100.0	—	—	—	+267.6%	—
universal:clu:gitlawb+sapphy	1	0.0	—	—	—	-2.4%	—
universal:inversion_alpha	110	25.5	—	—	—	-15.9%	—
universal:sajad_second_leg	10	10.0	—	—	—	-18.1%	—
universal:accum_sig_bundled	5	20.0	—	—	—	-6.7%	—
universal:accum_sig_fresh_swarm	53	35.8	—	—	—	+5.8%	—
universal:accum_sig_gmgn_cluster	56	33.9	—	—	—	+6.2%	—
universal:accum_sig_flow_div	49	32.7	—	—	—	+0.2%	—
universal:accum_sig_stealth	46	30.4	—	—	—	+1.8%	—
universal:source_strategy	670	20.9	—	—	—	-2.9%	—
universal:volume_path	2,005	24.1	—	—	—	-2.5%	—
universal:whalemover_rh	824	19.2	—	—	—	-3.9%	—
universal:scout	315	16.5	—	—	—	-17.9%	—
universal:leading_conv	40	15.0	—	—	—	-4.7%	—
universal:sniffer	11	36.4	—	—	—	+0.8%	—
universal:kol:plmkn1	5	40.0	—	—	—	+29.5%	—
universal:kol:engineercalls	2	0.0	—	—	—	-10.2%	—
universal:whale_driver	25	4.0	—	—	—	-7.0%	—
universal:kol:onchain_messiah	3	33.3	—	—	—	+0.1%	—
universal:fresh_large_buy	2	0.0	—	—	—	-47.6%	—

🧭 KARPATHY LOG — latest reviews

2026-10-11T10:42 — Review completed — no param changes recommended

2026-10-04T10:40 — Review completed — no param changes recommended

2026-10-03T10:40 — Review completed — no param changes recommended

2026-10-02T10:48 — Review completed — no param changes recommended